The Quebec grocery basket

📖 How to read this page

The index equals 100 at the reference week (Apr 7, 2025). Above 100 = the basket costs more; below = less. Prices are flyer prices, so the index moves with promotions as much as with inflation. The shrinkflation gap = size-adjusted price (per kg/L) minus advertised price, on the same staples: positive means packages are shrinking faster than prices are falling.

🧮 Methodology

Fixed basket of 22 staples. Weekly median flyer prices (3-week rolling median to smooth promotions), index = 100 at the reference week. Outlying observations are dropped (more than 4 median absolute deviations from that staple usual price). The size-adjusted index uses the price per kg/L, computed only when the pack size is printed in the flyer — never inferred from another source, since that would assert the size never changed, which is exactly what we are trying to measure. The shrinkflation gap compares only staples carrying both measures in the same week. Sources: 2025-2026 Flipp archives + current flyers.

Staples tracked:

Milk · Butter · Sliced bread · Ground beef · Chicken breast · Eggs · Potatoes · Ground coffee · Pasta · Rice · Cheddar · Greek yogurt · Orange juice · All-purpose flour · Granulated sugar · Peanut butter · Cereal · Ketchup · Mayonnaise · Onions · Lettuce · Carrots

📉 The packages getting smaller — the gap between the two indices, product by product — the shrinkflation tracker.

🧾 See the data behind every number Item, week, store, price and pack size — every advertised row the index counted, including the ones it rejected.

Updated October 22, 2026 ⬇ Download the data (CSV) ⬇ Download every observation (CSV)