Food inflation news is rarely good news. Yet if you look at real flyer prices in Quebec week after week, there's a surprise: the basic grocery basket costs less today than it did 16 months ago.
Every week, we track the advertised prices of a fixed basket of 22 staples (milk, butter, bread, ground beef, chicken, eggs, potatoes, coffee, pasta, rice, cheddar, yogurt, juice, flour, sugar, peanut butter, cereal, ketchup, mayonnaise, onions, lettuce, carrots) across Quebec flyers. The index equals 100 at the reference week (April 6, 2025). Below 100, the basket costs less. For the week of August 9, 2026, it stood at 94.3 — that's 5.7% cheaper than 16 months ago.
What went down (most of the basket)
| Staple | April 2025 price | August 2026 price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cereal | $5.23 | $3.99 | -24% |
| Rice | $9.99 | $7.88 | -21% |
| Carrots | $3.22 | $2.69 | -16% |
| Milk | $6.04 | $5.29 | -12% |
| Orange juice | $5.64 | $4.99 | -12% |
| Ground beef | $10.12 | $8.99 | -11% |
| Butter | $5.50 | $4.99 | -9% |
| Pasta | $3.25 | $2.99 | -8% |
What went up (and it matters)
Not everything fell. Three staples in the basket now cost more than in April 2025:
| Staple | April 2025 price | August 2026 price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Potatoes | $3.49 | $4.34 | +24% |
| Ground coffee | $11.72 | $12.99 | +11% |
| Eggs | $5.19 | $5.49 | +6% |
The important part: watch the package sizes
This basket measures advertised prices. But we also track prices per kg/L — to see whether packages are shrinking while prices stay flat. That's where the data tells a different story.
In spring 2026, the size-adjusted index climbed to 113.5 (mid-April) while the advertised price stayed around 90. In other words: packages shrank faster than prices fell. Since then, the adjusted index has come back down to 90.4 — summer specials made up for part of the effect.
That's exactly the signature of shrinkflation: the advertised price looks stable, but the package weighs less. Our 29 verified shrinkflation events prove it — from Jell-O going from 128 g to 85 g to Fibre 1 bars going from 175 g to 125 g.
⚠️ Methodological honesty: the weekly shrinkflation gap is not published this week — only 2 of the 22 basket staples have both a flyer-printed size and a valid comparison. We don't publish a number we can't back up.
What this means for you
- The basic basket really is cheaper — the deals on cereal, rice, pasta and butter are real and frequent this year.
- But check the price per kg/L. An advertised drop can hide a smaller package — the per-kg price is the only honest number.
- The increases are concentrated: potatoes, coffee and eggs. If one of these goes on sale, that's the time to stock up.
- The index moves with promotions. It measures flyer prices — the best way to benefit from the drops is to compare flyers before making your list.
👉 Explore the basket index, week by week, product by product — with the full methodology and the data behind every number.
Methodology: index calculated from weekly median prices of 22 staples in Quebec flyers (3-week rolling median to smooth promotions), indexed to 100 at the week of April 6, 2025. Outlying observations are excluded. The size-adjusted index uses the price per kg/L only when the pack size is printed in the flyer. Sources: 2025-2026 Flipp archives + current flyers. Data from week 2026-W33 (August 9, 2026), the last complete week at publication time.